2011 Federal Election (prediction): Conservative Minority

Judging by the strong showing of the NDP,  and the extremely weak showing by the Liberal Party, I predict a Conservative Minority (again).  I have looked at some of the polls, and figure that most of the NDP gains are coming off the expensive of the Liberal Party. 

The NDP will come through huge, especially in Quebec.  The Conservatives will keep most of their seats, but will not enjoy majority government status.  The Bloc will be decimated in Quebec by the NDP.  However, the real losers of the night will be the Liberal party.  Expect them to suffer big losses east of Manitoba, at the expense of the NDP.

Nationally, the Conservatives have a slight edge over the NDP, but the Liberals have really hit rock bottom.  Expect Michael Ignatieff to resign as party leader shortly after the election results have been tabulated.  Here are my predictions for tonights election:

British Columbia: 

• Conservatives x 18 (-4)
• NDP x 16 (+7)
• Liberals x 2 (-3)

Alberta:

• Conservatives x 26 (-1)
• NDP x 2 (+1)
• Liberals x 0 (no change)

Sask/Manitoba:

• Conservatives x 21 (-1)
• NDP x 7 (+3)
• Liberals x 0 (-2)

Ontario:

• Conservatives x 50 (-1)
• NDP x 28 (+11)
• Liberals x 28 (-10)

Quebec:

• NDP x 45 (+44)
• BQ x 18 (-31)
• Conservatives x 9 (-1)
• Liberals x 4 (-12)

Atlantic Provinces:

• Conservatives x 16 (+6)
• NDP x 10 (+6)
• Liberals x 5 (-12)

Territories:

• NDP x 2 (+1)
• Conservatives x 1 (no change)
• Liberals x 0 (-1)

CANADA ELECTION PREDICTION:

CONSERVATIVES:   141 SEATS
NEW DEMOCRACTIC PARTY:  110 SEATS
LIBERALS:  39 SEATS
BLOC QUEBECOIS:  18 SEATS